Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts
of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.

...Southeast this afternoon/evening...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east across the southern Appalachians.  This feature will
reach the VA/NC coast early tonight.  Farther northwest, a closed
midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over
the Great Lakes and OH Valley.  An associated surface cold front
will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern
Appalachians.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. 
Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little
larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. 
Additional storm development will be associated with the front and
orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians.  Overall
weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized
storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally
severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

...TX through tonight...
--No change needed to previous forecast discussion--
Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor
thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre
Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a
couple of supercells.  However, it is not clear that storm motions
will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering
convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they
manage to cross the border.  Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated
convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm
advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.
Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates
and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail
appears too low to warrant an outlook area.

..Smith/Moore.. 04/19/2024

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the
afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into
southern South Carolina.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate
westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East
Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the
southern Plains through Saturday night.

At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal
Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist
air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north
of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms.

...TX...
Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day
over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east
toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm
advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may
still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As
such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large
area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front. 

...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL...
The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA
and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating
expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow,
strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an
unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are
anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE
and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will
be possible.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2024

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