SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...Synopsis...
Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains
today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level
support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High
Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western
Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20
percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire
spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated
highlights.

..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...Synopsis...
Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High
Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow
(Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of
the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH
and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak
heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels
will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread
"high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico
into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater
rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed
in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1
period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a
pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift
will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the
central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of
the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted,
poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for
particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift.

Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great
Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the
Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a
result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet,
such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection.
Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted,
as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for
lightning discharge.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and
central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur
across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold
mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and
ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region.
A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related
to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central
Rockies.

Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward
from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper
Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this
low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited,
with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still,
a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the
northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the
Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be
located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features
should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development
mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the
mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though
deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame,
convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak
MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber
hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears
possible.

..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA
should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on
Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent
associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak
instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with
any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central
into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely
across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern
Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also
forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the
shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints
generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can
develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to
poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall
severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear
conditionally supports the potential for organized convection.

Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated
convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO.
Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across
the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be
on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a
southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to
reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support
a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday
morning).

..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

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