SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
weekend and early next week.

...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
concerns, especially D5/Sun.

Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.

..Lyons.. 03/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening.

...01z Update...

Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin
into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the
jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions
of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of
lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection,
loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk
for thunderstorms.

..Darrow.. 03/29/2024

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Mostly Cloudy
Winds are from the West at 10.4 gusting to 20.7 MPH (9 gusting to 18 KT). The pressure is 1020.8 mb and the humidity is 39%.
The wind chill is 48.
Last Updated on Mar 28 2024, 2:55 pm EDT.
Winds are from the West at 10.4 gusting to 20.7 MPH (9 gusting to 18 KT). The pressure is 1020.8 mb and the humidity is 39%.
The wind chill is 48.
Last Updated on Mar 28 2024, 2:55 pm EDT.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
weekend and early next week.

...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
concerns, especially D5/Sun.

Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.

..Lyons.. 03/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the
Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the
front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary
mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from
the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold
core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across
southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC
into early evening. 

No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West.

..Dean.. 03/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/

Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of
the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity.  A cold
front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with
associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by
mid-afternoon.  Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level
temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present.  No
severe storms are anticipated in either region.

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