Sticky
Overnight and Tomorrows forecast 3-28/29
2024-03-28
Tonight – Overcast. Low 30°F. Wind W at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow 3-29 – Partly cloudy, High 55°F. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night – Showers after 2AM. Low 39°F. Wind S, 5 to 10 mph.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-03-29
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-03-29
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Mar 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
2024-03-29
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024
SPC Mar 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
2024-03-29
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024
SPC Mar 29, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
2024-03-29
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024
Overcast and 48 F at Dayton / Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH
2024-03-29
Winds are West at 5.8 MPH (5 KT). The pressure is 1017.4 mb and the humidity is 59%.
The wind chill is 45.
Last Updated on Mar 29 2024, 3:55 am EDT.
Winds are West at 5.8 MPH (5 KT). The pressure is 1017.4 mb and the humidity is 59%.
The wind chill is 45.
Last Updated on Mar 29 2024, 3:55 am EDT.
The wind chill is 45.
Last Updated on Mar 29 2024, 3:55 am EDT.