SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today
with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten
the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to
windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern
New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60
knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this
region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative
humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist
over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to
dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat
will exist across eastern New Mexico.

..Bentley.. 03/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES....

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a
trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow
will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High
Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative
humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday
will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all
fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New
Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles.

..Bentley.. 03/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the
Midwest Friday night.

...Midwest...

Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as
a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley
advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then
shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest,
before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period.
Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the
central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in
response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially
quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values
may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing
ratios expected near 8 g/kg.

Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning,
as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW
Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally
low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold
(-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest
elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and
scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within
the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will
remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to
support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate
marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA
then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late
evening/overnight hours.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024

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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental
U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central
and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during
the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the
upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward.
Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and
Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving
south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast.
A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on
Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2024

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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected
Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into
the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave
troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in
the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into
the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong
thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight
period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from
northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature
inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This
environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range,
would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger
elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail
threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential
somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central
Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk
along this corridor.

Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is
forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite
of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a
warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be
possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska
and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is
expected to be too capped for convective initiation.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2024

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