Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 18A   Recently updated !

Source: AT=NHC

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017


000
WTNT35 KNHC 201758
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS MARIA'S CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 66.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just offshore of
the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 66.9 West.  Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected through early Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Maria will move away from the northwestern
coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon.  The center will then pass
offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight
and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous major
hurricane through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust
to 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Mayaguez, Puerto
Rico.  A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph
(122 km/h) was recently reported at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico.

The minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 961 mb
(28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of Puerto
Rico, and tropical storm conditions are continuing over the
remainder of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Tropical storm
conditions are likely beginning in the warning areas in the
Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
starting Thursday evening.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides

TORNADOES:  Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 61A   Recently updated !

Source: AT=NHC

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017


000
WTNT32 KNHC 201734
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 61A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...OUTER RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 69.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 70.0 West.  Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue
through tonight.  A slow westward motion should begin on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well
to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and pass offshore of
southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44008, located
about 65 miles southeast of Nantucket, recently reported a sustained
wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next several days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket...2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 18   Recently updated !

Source: AT=NHC

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017


000
WTNT45 KNHC 201440
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950
UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the
southeastern coast of Puerto Rico.  Subsequent 1-minute imagery from
the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate
that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto
Rico, around 1015 UTC.  Now that the center is moving over the
mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled,
and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar
velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my
best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate.  Maria's
center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico
soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better
estimate of how much Maria has weakened.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt.  This
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria
moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered this
cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC
forecast track.

Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some
time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the
Atlantic Ocean.  However, the shear is expected to be less than 10
kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to
restrengthen a bit over that time period.  After 36 hours, a gradual
increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual
decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the
forecast period.  Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to
the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity
forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the
forecast period.

Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has
become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position
updates are being discontinued.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the
island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local
officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and
rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin
Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.4N  66.5W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 12H  21/0000Z 19.2N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.2N  70.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.4N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 31.5N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg